Is CDC to announce 1 in 100 autism rate?

And, if so, is SafeMinds trying to play games with Google news to get their story on top?

What happens when you are the first to break a big news story, at least in terms of Google News? Well, quite often your story gets to be the top story.

On Wednesday, SafeMinds put a piece on the Age of Autism Blog CDC Study Expected to Announce 1 in 100 Autism Rate—A Startling 50% Jump in Just Two Years. Evidence Points to an Environmental Trigger. Then, on Thursday, basically the same piece reappeared as CDC Brings Bad Tidings: 40,000 Children Diagnosed With Autism In This Year Alone. They open with:

Atlanta, GA – A study to be released Friday by the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is expected to report that autism prevalence has reached the epidemic rate of 1 in 100 children.

Usually when a new study comes out, journals or the CDC will release some information to the press on the condition that they respect the “embargo”. That is, everyone is supposed to wait until the same time before going public with the information.

There are advantages to not playing by the rules. When you get your story out first, especially on a big story, you can try to influence other stories and you can ride the top of the wave of press coverage.

Take a look at Google News for a big story and often there is a “lead” or top story. No one wants to be burried in the mass of stories. Get your story out first, and, hey, maybe you will be the top story.

That would be a big public relations coup for SafeMinds. At the same time, we have to ask: if SafeMinds is correct, are they breaking an embargo? The release of information about a recent Pediatrics study claiming a 1% autism prevalence caused some bad press for the autism community (also here and here).

Let’s watch. Will SafeMinds put out yet another post Friday morning, just in case? Will they succeed in getting a prominent spot for their pieces? Will journalists covering the story contact SafeMinds or use their material for stories?

The CDC autism prevalence estimates are made via MMWR’s (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports). The previous report was from 2007, using data collected in 2002, with the 1 in 150 prevalence estimate that has been commonly quoted.

If you recall, the existence of the upcoming MMWR was leaked a few months ago. Lee Grossman, president of the Autism Society of America, somehow found out and talked publicly, and David Kirby blogged it. Of course, Mr. Kirby found a way (or was told a way) to include this as evidence of vaccines causing autism. The argument being that the Hepatitis B vaccine was given to those kids. It didn’t matter that the other dataset he was discussing in that same post, from the National Children’s Health Survey, didn’t support the idea at all. SafeMinds seems to be making the same arguments in their blog pieces as well.

If SafeMinds is correct and the announcement comes out Friday, expect updates on the CDC autism data page, and the CDC autism page. But, hey, expect about 5,000 news articles too.

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